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MARCH 20,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

GROVELING – From The Hill:  "Secretary of State John Kerry mourned the death of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's mother on Wednesday as U.S. negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program enter their final weeks.  'We extend our deepest condolences to the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Dr. Hassan Rouhani and his family on the passing of his mother, Mrs. Sakineh Peivandi,' he said in a statement. 'Such a loss is especially hard coming on the eve of Nowruz, traditionally a time when families gather together in joy and hope.'"  I would normally have no problem with condolence statements, but the man whose mother died runs a regime that denies all basic freedoms and sponsors public hangings in the street.  It is a regime that calls America "the great Satan."  I wish the secretary of state showed more concern about Iran's victims than about the passing of the leader's mom.

AMERICANS AND ISIS – From Newsmax:  "U.S. voters are losing their fervor for involvement in the battle against the Islamic State as ISIS steps up its vicious attacks despite the allied air war against the group and President Barack Obama asks Congress to approve increased U.S. military involvement.  A Rasmussen poll of 1,000 likely voters found that only 25 percent now think the U.S. is winning the war, while 38 percent say ISIS is winning.  Other poll findings include:  40 percent say the U.S. should send ground combat troops back to Iraq to fight ISIS, a drop of 12 percentage points from a similar poll in early February, while 34 percent are opposed.  66 percent say Congress should approve before any troops are sent in, 23 percent disagree, and 12 percent are undecided.  34 percent approve of how Obama is handling the conflict with ISIS, compared to 38 percent in February.  42 percent say Obama is doing a poor job of handling ISIS, an increase from 35 percent in a September poll."  Not exactly a vote of confidence for the military genius in the White House.

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – Scholarship marches on.  From People:  "Adults who miss the squish of Play-Doh between their fingers and the feeling of a stiff cot beneath their head can now reconnect with their inner preschooler – for a price.  Brooklyn, New York's Preschool Mastermind is the world's first day-care-like experience for adults, reports ABC News. The course features all the staples you probably remember from your pre-K days, like finger painting, naptime, musical chairs, dress-up and show-and-tell.  'You still CAN be anything you want when you grow up! And this class will give you the hands-on wisdom, intuition and playfulness you need to get there,' founder Michelle Joni explains on Preschool Mastermind's site.  'In this one-month adventure, we'll explore preschool concepts, like sharing and friendship, in order to apply and inject play, wonder, self-belief, and community into our grown-up lives.'"  I think Obama went there.

March 20, 2015       Permalink

OBAMA AND IRAN – AT 11:08 A.M. ET:  We've seen the worst of Obama this week in his petty, adolescent handling of the election of Bibi Netanyahu.  But maybe Obama has just begun.  A possible nuclear agreement with Iran looms, and Obama is going against the feelings of the American people, as if he cares.  From National Journal:   

Throughout the contentious debate between the White House and Congress over the Iran nuclear negotiations, one important piece of the equation has been largely overlooked: American public opinion. If voters were confident that President Obama was striking a good deal with Iran that would prevent Tehran from getting nuclear weapons, he'd have little trouble getting support from the legislative branch.

But the reason the president is facing such bipartisan backlash is that an overwhelming number of voters are deeply worried about the direction of the negotiations. Think about how rare, in these polarized times, mobilizing a veto-proof majority of congressional Republicans and Democrats is for any significant legislation. Yet despite all the distractions, Congress is close to achieving that goal: requiring the administration to go to Congress for approval of any deal.

The administration is so focused on process and protocol in attacking the opposition because it's a useful distraction from how unpopular the administration's eagerness to strike any deal with Iran has become.

Consider the polling: In this month's NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 71 percent of respondents said they believed a deal would not prevent the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Earlier in March, a Fox News poll found that a 57 percent majority believed the U.S. wasn't being "aggressive enough" in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear program, while nearly two-thirds supported military action as a last resort. In a February Gallup Poll, 77 percent of Americans said they believed Iran's development of nuclear weapons posed a "critical threat" to the United States.

COMMENT:  It's possible the nuclear negotiations will fall apart.  If they don't, any agreement is unlikely to be in our interests.  Obama will have to defend the pact, and he will have most of Congress immediately against him.

That could be a critical moment.  If we hang together, we can put some restraints on this dangerous president.

March 20, 2015       Permalink

THERE'S SOMETHING ABOUT MARCO – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  As of now, only two candidates have caused sustained buzz in GOP circles – Scott Walker and Marco Rubio.  Both are very solid contenders.  Both would make outstanding presidents.

It was expected by some pundits that Jeb Bush would roll all over the field, but he can't seem to get started.  A recent poll noted that most Americans want new faces.  They're not getting them from the old establishment.  They're getting new faces from Walker and Rubio.  If I had to give the edge to anyone right now, it would be Rubio.  He is an extremely attractive candidate, and schooled in foreign policy.  He's also running a shrewd campaign.  From CNN:   

(CNN) Marco Rubio has a plan to build his national profile: Take on Washington's least sexy issues.

As he prepares for an expected 2016 presidential bid, the Florida Republican senator has released policy plans for a series of thorny debates including retirement security and higher education reform.

The latest installment is a tax reform plan, released this month with his colleague Mike Lee of Utah, that would slash the top corporate tax rate and give some families larger child tax credits.

It's a move that carries plenty of political risk for Rubio. Making big changes to the tax code is typically divisive and inevitably attracts criticism from across the political spectrum.

But in a crowded Republican primary that is likely to include former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, his one-time mentor, taking on dense debates can help establish Rubio as an "ideas" candidate and boost his political and policy gravitas.

"He's not going to be the guy that organizes the most money or the guy that goes out to build the traditional coalition," said Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker and presidential candidate. "He's going to be the guy that says: Look ... if you think we need someone with big ideas about the future, I'm your guy."

Rubio, 43, has struggled so far to break through into the top ranks of potential Republican 2016 candidates. He came in at 7% in a CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday, lagging behind Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and Chris Christie.

COMMENT:  That is a question of name recognition.  Where was Scott Walker two months ago?  As candidates emerge and become better known, their name recognition rises.  If they're good, their poll numbers also rise.  I'm looking for Rubio to emerge as a major contender.  He is getting far more press, and word-of-mouth, than he was getting not long ago.  And it's largely positive. 

We cannot avoid the reality of appearances.  A candidate has to win.  Ronald Reagan won largely because he understood how to present himself.  I think Rubio has that instinct, and so does Walker. 

March 20, 2015       Permalink

NEW TERROR ATTACK – AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  The war on terror is winding down.  Field Marshal Obama says so, and who are we to question the field marshal's expertise?  Oh, wait.  Something has just happened.  From BBC:   

Suicide bombers have blown themselves up at two mosques in Yemen's capital, Sanaa, killing at least 46 people and wounding 100 others, medics say.

Worshippers were attending noon prayers at the Badr and al-Hashoosh mosques when at least three attackers struck.

TV footage showed bodies lying in pools of blood outside the mosques, as people rushed the wounded to hospital.

The mosques are used mainly by supporters of the Zaidi Shia-led Houthi rebel movement, which controls Sanaa.

There are severe tensions between the rebels and various powerful, armed elements in Yemen, including militants from al-Qaeda.

Witnesses said at least two suicide bombers attacked the Badr mosque, in the south of Sanaa.

COMMENT:  Last year Mr Obama pointed to Yemen as an American success story – an ally that had defeated the bad guys.  Today the bad guys are running all over the place, and Yemen is just another enemy state in the Mideast.

It must be Bibi's fault.

March 20, 2015        Permalink

I'M SHOCKED, SHOCKED – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  The nuclear talks with Iran have apparently run into trouble.   But don't worry.  Obama will find a way to give in to Iran to make them smile again.  He is so skilled.  From Fox: 

A dispute over when international sanctions against Iran would be lifted following a potential nuclear agreement reportedly is the latest issue to bog down negotiations.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran's negotiators say that sanctions must be lifted almost immediately after a deal is concluded. U.S. and European diplomats, for their part, hold that sanctions should only be lifted once Tehran accounts for its past nuclear activity and is confirmed to be using nuclear energy for peaceful means by the United Nations' nuclear watchdog.

One European diplomat was quoted by the Journal as saying there was "no way" Western negotiators would budge from their position, which the diplomat said the Iranians considered a "deal-breaker. They don't want it at all."

The Europeans, especially the French, are tougher on Iran than we are. 

According to the paper, both sides believe that the U.S. and European Union can lift some of the sanctions each has unilaterally imposed on Iran's energy and finance sectors. However, the issue of lifting sanctions imposed by the U.N. is more complex and according to negotiators, is likely to take years, not weeks or months, to accomplish.

For its part, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says that Iran has failed to turn over key documents about its nuclear program, and has also denied access to scientists and nuclear sites.

Both sides are working to meet a March 31 deadline to construct the framework of a permanent agreement. The final deadline for all the details to be worked out is June 30. On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif met face-to-face for the fourth straight day in Lausanne, Switzerland.

The Associated Press reported late Thursday that elements of a draft deal had been agreed that would commit Iran to a 40 percent cut in the number of machines it could use to make an atomic bomb. In return, the Iranians would get quick relief from some crippling economic sanctions and a partial lift of a U.N. embargo on conventional arms.

COMMENT:  Such a deal would be pathetic, allowing Iran to still have 60% of the centrifuges it now has.  And we have not been assured that all the terms of the deal would be made public.  Millions of lives are potentially involved here, yet the matter is being handled like some back-room Chicago political deal.

March 20,  2015     Permalink

MARCH 19,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

MARCH MADNESS – From Fox:  "A black student organization at the University of California at Berkeley is demanding the university rename a building on campus after Assata Shakur, a former Black Panther, convicted cop killer and the first woman named to the FBI's Most-Wanted Terrorist List.  A jury convicted Shakur of killing a New Jersey State Trooper in 1979. She escaped prison and fled to Cuba. The FBI calls her a domestic terrorist. In 2013, the agency added her to the FBI's Most Wanted Terrorist List, alongside several members of Al Qaeda, airline hijackers and bombers.  But to the Black Student Union at Berkeley, Shakur is an 'icon of resistance within oppressed communities (who) represents black resilience in the face of state-sanctioned violence.' They demanded the university rename Barrows Hall, named after former Chancellor David Barrows, 'Shakur Hall.' In 2013, Shakur declared her innocence and called her trial in 1979 a legal lynching by an all-white jury. Shakur, formerly known as Joann Chesimard, belonged to the Black Liberation Army at the time of the shooting.  'We want the renaming for someone -- Assata Shakur -- who we feel like represents us as black students,' said Black Student Union spokesman Cori McGowens. 'Black students on campus have a feeling of isolation, marginalization. We're at a crisis on campus.'"   It's a sad commentary, but don't blame only the students.  They were taught this.

MAJOR DEMOCRACY NEWS – From the Washington Times:  "The White House Thursday walked back President Obama’s comments in favor of mandatory voting in the U.S.  'The president was not making a specific policy prescription for the United States,' said White House press secretary Josh Earnest.  At a town-hall event in Cleveland on Wednesday, Mr. Obama described compulsory voting as 'a better strategy' in the short term than pushing for a Constitutional amendment to counter increased campaign spending in the U.S. since the Supreme Court’s ruling in the 'Citizens United' case.  'It would be transformative if everybody voted,' Mr. Obama said during a town-hall event in Cleveland. 'That would counteract [campaign] money more than anything. If everybody voted, then it would completely change the political map in this country.'  He mentioned Australia, which had mandatory voting and citizens can face a fine for not going to the polls, and said it was an example of the 'creative ways' needed to counter money in politics."  The president continues to embarrass us.  But electing him was the greatest embarrassment of all.  Citizens who do not wish to vote are making a democratic choice of their own.

ARTISTIC NEWS – From the New York Post:  "Hillary Rodham Clinton says her favorite TV show is an obscure Danish drama — about a fictional pol who becomes Denmark’s first female prime minister.
In a paid speech Thursday in Atlantic City, the likely Democratic presidential candidate said she can’t get enough of the Danish series 'Borgen,' despite its subtitles. 'I’ve just discovered this incredible series about a woman elected prime minister in Denmark, which is very realistic,' Clinton said, adding that it was recommended by a friend.  The issue came up when, among softball questions, moderator Jay Jacobs, the Nassau County Democratic chairman, asked if Clinton watches 'Homeland.' 'I’m a little behind, to be honest,' she said."  When she was first lady she was asked about her taste in music.  She declared that she liked some Brazilian rhythms.  Like the people in her court, she seems to have a problem with anything American.  Maybe that's why contributors from foreign dictatorships are so kind to her.

March 19, 2015       Permalink

COTTON STATES THE CASE – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:  We expected Tom Cotton to become a major figure in Republican national politics, and it's happening.   The newly minted Arkansas senator, who left a budding legal career to fight in Iraq, just made his maiden speech in the Senate, and Cotton placed himself firmly in the strong-national-defense, Reagan wing of his party.  From WaPo: 

Over the course of just a few days last week, Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) went from relatively anonymous freshman senator to what seemed like the tip of every tongue in Washington -- thanks to the letter he wrote and got 46 fellow Republicans to join, warning the ruling Iranian regime to be wary of negotiating a nuclear deal with President Obama.

But here's a fun fact: Cotton made his big splash before even giving his first speech on the Senate floor.

That occasion came late Monday, when Cotton delivered his "maiden speech," which is typically given after a period of silence and as a statement of principles or objectives rather than a comment on the partisan issue of the day.

Cotton's address has gotten a lot less attention than his Iran letter, and that is not surprising: Where the letter was terse and seemingly calculated to influence the multiparty nuclear negotiations now underway, the half-hour speech was dense, rich in historical references, and calibrated to further establish Cotton as the Republican Party's young leading light on foreign affairs and defense -- positioning him to assume the mantle now worn by elders like John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

"An alarm should be sounding in our ears," Cotton said. "Our enemies, sensing weakness and hence opportunity, have become steadily more aggressive. Our allies, uncertain of our commitment and capability, have begun to conclude that they must look out for themselves, even where it is unhelpful to stability and order. Our military, suffering from years of neglect, has seen its relative strength decline to historic levels."

The speech contained numerous references to Winston Churchill and Cotton compared the current foreign policy moment to the prelude to World War II. He articulated a litany of national security threats, ranging from Iran to North Korea to Russia, but the speech was notable for the hard line it took on a question now threatening to divide Capitol Hill Republicans as they try to write a 2017 budget: Is it more important to control federal spending or strengthen the national defense?

Cotton was clear: America must have "such hegemonic strength that no sane adversary would ever imagine challenging the United States. 'Good enough' is not and will never be good enough." That strength, he said, should come at whatever the necessary costs. While the budget must be slashed, it should not be balanced on the backs of the military.

“Our enemies and allies alike must know that aggressors will pay an unspeakable price for challenging the United States," Cotton said. "The best way to impose that price is global military dominance.”

COMMENT:  Echoes of Jack Kennedy, who today might well be a Republican.  (Can you imagine any Democrat delivering Kennedy's inaugural address?)  Cotton is right.  The Democrats will fight him all the way.  The question is whether the Republican Party will give him the support he deserves.

March 19, 2015      Permalink

ANOTHER DEADLINE PASSING – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  We were supposed to have a general nuclear agreement with Iran by March 24th.  And this is after an extension of the last round of talks.  Not so fast, say the Iranians.  Not so fast at all.  From AFP:   

Mohammad Javad Zarif, in talks in Switzerland with US Secretary of State John Kerry since Monday, said other foreign ministers from world powers involved in the negotiations were unlikely to join them for now.

The arrival of the foreign ministers of Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany in Lausanne — joining their political directors — could indicate that a long-elusive deal might be at hand.

“I don’t think their presence will be needed in this round,” Zarif told Iranian state media from the Swiss lakeside city.

“When the solutions are found and we approach a deal, then all the foreign ministers of the negotiating parties should come,” he said.

As a result the negotiations will likely have to continue into next week or resume then after a break.

Iran and the six powers have been seeking in months of talks to transform an interim deal struck in November 2013 into a lasting accord that they hope will convince the world that Iran is not about to develop nuclear weapons.

Such an agreement would involve Iran scaling down its nuclear activities to within strict limits in exchange for relief from painful sanctions after 12 years of rising tensions over its atomic program.

Two earlier target dates last July and then again in November were missed, but experts say that the new deadline — March 31 for a framework deal, July 1 for the full deal — has to be met.

It is however far from certain that they will manage to get a deal, with both sides warning of disagreements on key issues, principally the future size of Iran’s program and the timing of easing sanctions.

COMMENT:  Same old, same old.  And each day that passes brings Iran closer to a nuclear bomb.  In addition, some of our allies, especially France, are actually looking at any proposed deal with two eyes.  In part, we can thank Bibi Netanyahu for that.  He alerted the world to the danger, and at least a part of the world listened.

March 19, 2015       Permalink

HILLARY, YOUR SLIP IS SHOWING – AT 9:24 A.M. ET:  Oh dear, oh dear, even Democrats are starting to notice that Hillary Clinton is violating the Girl Scout oath.  It's starting to show in the numbers.  Can panic be far behind?  From Reuters: 

(Reuters) - Democratic support for Hillary Clinton's expected presidential campaign is softening amid controversy over her use of personal email when secretary of state, but most Democrats are for now sticking by their party's presumed candidate.

Support for Clinton's candidacy has dropped about 15 percentage points since mid February among Democrats, with as few as 45 percent saying they would support her in the last week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll. Support from Democrats likely to vote in the party nominating contests has dropped only slightly less, to a low in the mid-50s over the same period.

Even Democrats who said they were not personally swayed one way or another by the email flap said that Clinton could fare worse because of it, if and when she launches her presidential campaign, a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll showed.

Democratic strategist Ben LaBolt, a former spokesman for President Barack Obama's 2012 campaign, said that the email controversy has been a "galvanizing call for the Clinton campaign-in-waiting to build an organization," by hiring top political communicators who can defend her record. Clinton, who ran for the White House in 2008 and lost to Obama, is expected to announce as early as April that she plans to seek the White House in 2016.

COMMENT:  One thing about the Clintons – there's always a new scandal.  I'd imagine many Democratic operatives are worried silly that something new will come out.  And I'd imagine that the Clinton Foundation's acceptance of large foreign checks while Hillary was secretary of state is a scandal that has barely been explored. 

Republicans should hold their fire, and time their revelations well. 

March 19, 2015       Permalink

TUNIS ATTACK – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  In the aftermath of the attack yesterday on a museum in Tunis, authorities have started to make arrests.  While no group has claimed credit, eyes are on ISIS.  Thousands of Tunisians have gone to other countries to join ISIS, and some of them are now returning, well trained.  From BBC:

Once regarded as a beacon of secularism in the Arab world, Tunisia has seen militant Islamists gain strength since the overthrow of long-serving ruler Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in a popular uprising in 2011.

The attack on the famous Bardo museum in the capital, Tunis, was the deadliest since the revolution, with at least 19 people - mostly European tourists - killed.

No group has said it carried out the attack, but Tunisian officials have pointed at fighters linked to the Islamic State (IS), which is fighting in Iraq and Syria and has a foothold in neighbouring Libya.

Tunisian authorities say up to 3,000 of its citizens have gone abroad to wage jihad - including to Syria and Iraq - making them the largest number of foreign fighters to join IS's ranks, according to some researchers.

Some of the militants are now said to have returned, increasing the security threat.

The attack is a big blow to Tunisia's new secular-led government, which vowed to take a tougher line against the militants after it defeated the moderate Islamist Ennahda party in elections last year.

Having won the first post-revolution election, Ennahda was accused of being soft on jihadist groups - a perception which grew after leading secular politicians Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi were assassinated in 2013.

Tunisia has also battled al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) along its border with Algeria.

COMMENT:  It is striking to see just how quickly ISIS and its affiliated groups have gained influence, not only in the Mideast, but in Europe.  Attacks are now frequent, almost commonplace. 

Several days ago, Barack Obama tried to blame the rise of ISIS on George W. Bush.  His comments were met with general ridicule.  Next he should try blaming Teddy Roosevelt, another boisterous Republican.

March 19,  2015     Permalink